S8, Ep 2: January Fishing Forecast: Weather Patterns and Musky Tips with Matt Reilly
Episode Overview
The Articulate Fly kicks off 2026 with the first Southwest Virginia Fishing Report featuring guide Matt Reilly, who breaks down winter musky strategies for navigating January's unpredictable conditions in Southwest Virginia's river systems. Matt explains how musky concentrate in specific locations during cold water periods (upper 30s to low 40s) and why cloudy, warm days create ideal winter fishing opportunities. The conversation covers tactical approaches for fishing through temperature swings, managing variable weather fronts and the concentrated fish behavior that makes winter musky fishing productive when anglers fish intentionally. Matt also discusses his 2026 booking calendar, upcoming smallmouth pre-spawn season and his appearance at the Buckeye United Fly Fishers show in Cincinnati. This report delivers practical insight for serious predator anglers targeting musky during the challenging but rewarding winter season, with additional perspective on spring striper opportunities and the year ahead without periodical cicada hatches.
Key Takeaways
- How to locate winter musky by understanding that colder water temperatures concentrate fish into specific, predictable locations rather than spreading them throughout a system.
- Why cloudy, warm days with water temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s create optimal winter musky conditions despite variable January weather patterns.
- When to adjust your approach for cold water musky fishing by being more intentional about location selection rather than avoiding winter conditions altogether.
Techniques & Gear Covered
Matt Reilly emphasizes the importance of intentional, location-focused fishing during winter musky conditions. The discussion centers on tactical approaches for cold water periods when fish are concentrated rather than dispersed, requiring anglers to be strategic about where they invest their time and energy. Matt explains how water temperature fluctuations between the low 30s and low 40s influence fish behavior and how managing frontal systems and variable weather conditions factors into successful winter musky pursuits. The report also touches on Matt's smallmouth fly patterns and his approach to pre-spawn smallmouth tactics as the calendar moves toward late winter and early spring transitions.
Locations & Species
This Southwest Virginia Fishing Report focuses on Matt Reilly's home waters in Southwest Virginia, primarily targeting musky during the winter season. The discussion covers river systems experiencing variable January conditions, with water temperatures ranging from the low 30s (with ice) to the low 40s during warming trends. Matt also discusses upcoming opportunities for pre-spawn smallmouth bass in late winter and early spring and striper fishing scheduled for April and May. The region's fisheries demonstrate the characteristic boom-and-bust weather patterns of mid-Atlantic winters, where 70-degree days can give way to frozen conditions within a week, making day-by-day assessment critical for successful winter fishing.
FAQ / Key Questions Answered
How do cold water temperatures affect winter musky location and behavior?
Matt explains that cold water and ice don't necessarily shut down musky fishing but rather concentrate fish into very specific locations. The colder conditions are, the more packed fish tend to be in predictable spots. When water temperatures start warming up during comfortable weather windows, these concentrated fish can become quite active while remaining in those same predictable locations, making winter fishing productive for anglers who understand where to focus their efforts.
What are the ideal weather conditions for winter musky fishing in Southwest Virginia?
The sweet spot for winter musky is cloudy, warm weather combined with water temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Matt describes these conditions as "just money" for musky fishing. While January and early February are wild cards due to variable weather patterns that can swing from 70-degree days to frozen rivers within a week, understanding these temperature and weather combinations helps anglers capitalize on the best winter windows.
Why does intentional fishing matter more during cold water periods?
During cold conditions, musky are packed into specific places rather than spread throughout the river system. This concentration requires anglers to be more deliberate about their location choices and approach rather than covering water randomly. Managing time and energy efficiently becomes easier when you know exactly where fish are going to be, and this predictability is part of what makes winter fishing effective despite the challenging conditions.
Related Content
S6, Ep 146 - Musky Mysteries: Winter Tactics and Fly Tying Tips with Matt Reilly
S7, Ep 1 - Winter Fly Tying and Pre-Spawn Tips with Matt Reilly
S7, Ep 19 - Weathering the Winds: March Fishing Insights and Pre-Spawn Strategies with Matt Reilly
S6, Ep 112 - Smallmouth Transitions and Musky Prep: Matt Reilly's Southwest VA Update
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In this Southwest Virginia fly fishing report from The Articulate Fly podcast, host Marvin Cash connects with guide Matt Reilly to discuss early 2026 musky fishing conditions and booking availability for the coming season. Reilly shares insights on navigating January's unpredictable weather patterns, explaining how cold water temperatures concentrate muskies in specific locations and create excellent fishing opportunities when conditions align. The conversation covers winter musky tactics for Southwest Virginia rivers, upcoming smallmouth and striper season availability and announces the 2025 listener question contest winner. Reilly also discusses his 2026 show season plans and the absence of periodical cicada hatches this year, which will be the only year without periodical emergences for 13 years.
EPISODE SUMMARY
Guest: Matt Reilly - Fly Fishing Guide at Matt Reilly Fly Fishing (Southwest Virginia)
In this episode: Southwest Virginia guide Matt Reilly shares January musky fishing strategies and 2026 season booking updates for anglers planning trips to Virginia rivers. Topics include winter weather pattern impacts on musky behavior, water temperature considerations for cold-water fishing and seasonal transitions from musky to smallmouth and striper fishing.
Key fishing techniques covered:
- Winter musky fishing in cold water conditions (low 30s to low 40s)
- Location-specific musky tactics when fish are concentrated in predictable areas
- Managing energy and time efficiency during winter fishing
- Pre-spawn smallmouth strategies
- Periodical cicada hatch fishing (none expected in 2026)
Location focus: Southwest Virginia rivers, New River system
Target species: Musky (primary focus), smallmouth bass, striped bass
Equipment discussed: Smallmouth flies, musky flies, general winter fishing tackle
Key questions answered:
- What are the best conditions for winter musky fishing in Virginia?
- How do water temperatures affect musky location in January?
- When should anglers book guides for 2026 Virginia fishing?
- What species are available in Southwest Virginia throughout the year?
Best for: Intermediate to advanced anglers interested in Virginia musky fishing, winter fly fishing strategies and regional fishing report updates
FULL TRANSCRIPT:
Marvin Cash
Hey folks, it's Marvin Cash, the host of The Articulate Fly. We're back with the first Southwest Virginia Fishing Report of 2026 with Matt Reilly himself. Matt, how are you?
Matt Reilly
I'm doing pretty good, man. How are you?
Marvin Cash
Just trying to stay out of trouble. Was Santa Claus good to you?
Matt Reilly
He was, yeah, he was, he was better to my kids. But we, we all had a good time on Christmas.
Marvin Cash
Well, that's awesome. And you know, it's kind of funny.We'll talk about show season stuff in a bit, but you know, we've had kind of that same kind of uneven weather pattern here recently where I think this week is going to get up at least where we are into the 70s, I think where you are in the 60s, and then it's going to drop back into the freezer locker in about five to seven days.
Matt Reilly
Yeah, I think we got a couple of highs around 60 this week, and then about Sunday it's gonna, I saw a high of 39 and it's gonna be kind of more seasonal from, you know, for the next several days after that, which, you know, I have this conversation with folks all the time, particularly, you know, people want to know, you know, musky dates, when's the best month, et cetera, et cetera.And January and the first half of February really is kind of like the biggest wild card because it could be, you know, last year by the middle of January we had a frozen river and then it was blown out and it was frozen again and. But you know, at least two of the last four or five years we've had some 70, 75 degree, just beautiful, spectacular mid January days too.So it's, it's pretty hard to pin down. You just kind of have to take it day by day. But we do have some phenomenal weather this week.
Marvin Cash
Yeah, I guess the sweet spot would be cloudy and warm, right?
Matt Reilly
Cloudy and warm. Man, if you, you have the water temps down in like the, you know, upper 30s, low 40s, and it'd be cloudy and warm in January. That's just money.
Marvin Cash
Yeah, so. So what are you seeing on the water with the muskie?
Matt Reilly
It's been, it's been pretty good business as usual. You know, back before Christmas we had some pretty cold weather too. There's a lot of ice, you know, low 30s, water temps here and there.But you know, frankly, I've only musky fished a couple of days between here and Christmas and, or been on the water and it's been, it's, it's been pretty good, you know, warmer weather. We're still dealing with some wind, you know, get it. And that's just part of the yo yo and you know, temperatures and fronts and stuff.But like tomorrow they're calling for 15 miles an hour and then the day after that it's going to be 60 and you know, 0 to 3. So things have been pretty good. And you know, just relative to all those water, those air temperatures, water temperatures bounce around a fair bit.I say this every year. A cold, cold water ice, all that stuff doesn't really scare me that much. Fishing can still be great.It just, you know, just something to take into consideration. Usually the colder things are the more kind of packed into very specific places those fish tend to be.So you just have to be a little more intentional about how you fish.But yeah, I mean that's, that's sort of why or part of the reason why the fishing can be so good this time of year if the weather is decent is because those fish really are packed into, you know, specific locations and then the water starts warming up and you get some really comfortable weather and, and they can, they can get pretty frisky for a little while but, but still be pretty predictable in location. So, you know, business as usual.
Marvin Cash
Yeah. Which is good, right? Keeps the, keeps you from blowing your shoulder out.
Matt Reilly
Yeah, yeah, you can, you can kind of manage your, manage your time and your energy really well when you know exactly where the fish are going to be.
Marvin Cash
Yeah.And so you know folks, as we always do at the beginning of the new year, we do the drawing for all the people that submitted questions last year and that we used on the fishing report. And before I announce the winner, Matt, you want to let, let folks know what the winner's gonna get.
Matt Reilly
Yeah. Some flies, some of my kind of go to smallmouth flies. Some different stuff I've been messing around with the last couple of years.And a couple of stickers, rod company and, and you know, fishing company stickers I got laying around.
Marvin Cash
Well, there you go. Well, listen, the lucky winner is Josh Fleener. Josh, I will connect you with Matt. Congratulations and thanks for being a listener.
Matt Reilly
Yeah, awesome, dude. I know Josh. I've been talking to him a fair bit about some flies and fish, some of his stuff and I think I've got some that, that he's curious about.So that'll be good. I'm happy to excited to send him some of that stuff.
Marvin Cash
Yeah, absolutely. And before we start talking about show season stuff, I saw your most recent email, which I knew you had an office day. Right.So you listed all of your open dates. You want to kind of give folks a flavor for kind of what you have for muskie and then heading into smallmouth for this year.
Matt Reilly
Yeah, I think as far as muskie goes, it's, it's mostly like the back half of January, front half of February, and then, you know, just some dates kind of sprinkled throughout there and then definitely starting to talk pre spawn smallmouth stuff with folks. Um, really anything. I mean, I've booked a, a dozen or so striper dates already for, for April and May and fair few summer days too.So this is the time of year where, you know, I'm gonna get a lot of my, my regulars and, and folks I had to reschedule from last year on the calendar.So if, if you're kind of sitting around and there's something that you might be interested in, you know, between now and next fall, I would, I'd get in touch because the calendar tends to get pretty thin pretty quick between now and like February.
Marvin Cash
Yeah. And of course, I think no cicadas this year, right?
Matt Reilly
No cicadas. Yeah. This is the only year, I think in the next 13 years that we're not gonna have a cicada periodical skate hatch anywhere.So it, you know, as, as, as much as I love chasing those things, it'll be a little bit nice to have a, have a year off from, from driving myself into the ground and it'll just make it that much more special next time it comes around.
Marvin Cash
Yeah, I think people don't appreciate that for you to guide that. You're kind of driving around all over creation trying to find the bugs to then put up, put them on the fish.And it's not, you know, it's not like, meet me where I always like to fish this time of year and we'll go do our thing. You're like, you know, scouting and doing all kinds of stuff.
Matt Reilly
Yeah, it's, I mean there's definitely a lot of front end work and it's, I don't know, to risk, to risk sounding, sounding arrogant.It's, it's not that difficult once you're good at the process and understand it to, to, I mean, more or less pinpoint, you know, of, of like maybe three really solid hypotheses. You know, one or two or all of them are usually going to be, going to be correct.And you can, you can do all that from, you know, from your, your bedroom if you, if you want to. The biggest challenge on my end is that if I'm taking people fishing, it's not just my time. That's, that's sacrificed, you know, if.If one of those things doesn't work out. So I. I'll figure all this stuff out and then I will, you know, physically go, you know, kind of put.Put flies on the water and boots on the ground, all those spots to. To confirm and verify before I. I really start taking anybody's money. Because you want to make sure that. That you got it all set.And so, yeah, it's a. It's a fair bit of work. It'll be kind of nice to. To go straight from stripers back to, you know, smallmouth and muskies pretty smoothly.But like I said, I'll definitely miss it.
Marvin Cash
Yeah. And so, you know, also too, you know, early 2026 always means show season somewhere. Where can people find you on the road this year?
Matt Reilly
Only thing I'm doing this year is the same show I did the last show I did two years ago in Cincinnati. Buckeye United Fly Fishers. I think it's the first Saturday in February. It's pretty, pretty cool little show up there. So I'm, I'm excited about that.See some of the folks that I. I met that two years ago when I went, and hopefully some new folks, too.
Marvin Cash
Yeah, well, very neat. Well, you know, I'm sure folks have it almost memorized at this point.For folks that don't know what's the best way to reach out, get in touch, get on the books and all that kind of good stuff.
Matt Reilly
Yeah, definitely through the website you can. Well, that's where all my contact info is. I love getting phone calls. Text messages are great, too. Emails are perfect.mattreillyflyfishing.com got all of it. So just reach out however you feel best.
Marvin Cash
Well, there you go. Well, listen, I want to wish everybody a happy New Year. Happy New Year, Matt.
Matt Reilly
Hey, thanks, Marvin. Happy New Year.
Guide | Fly Tier | Outdoor Writer
Matt grew up stomping around the warm water creeks and rivers of his native central Virginia, just a stone's throw from the James River. He's been blessed with a great many mentors, including his father, who introduced him to fishing before the age of two.
In his teenage years, Matt took his first professional venture into the outdoor industry as a freelance writer and photographer, and soon secured a weekly outdoor column in The Daily Progress' Rural Virginian.
After heading south for college and falling in love with the fisheries of southwest Virginia, Matt established his guide service in 2018. Today, he is a father, husband, USCG-licensed captain, and a leading fishing guide specializing in smallmouth bass, musky, and other predatory game fish. He speaks regularly on a range of topics. His writing has appeared in several national and regional publications like Eastern Fly Fishing, American Angler, Fly Tyer, Southern Trout, Hatch Magazine, and Virginia Wildlife. He is also an ambassador for Reilly Rod Crafters, a producer of premium fly rods based in Virginia.
